FGCU, or the Power of Outliers

Any red-blooded American male knows that there's a formula for how a low-seeded team in the NCAA tournament pulls off an upset.  Takao maintains that all upstart double-digit seeds need a quick point guard, a lights-out shooter, and a bamma-ass power forward who tries hard.  It doesn't hurt when the favored team doesn't take the game seriously.  The lower seeded team hits 'em quick and builds a double digit halftime lead, usually because they hit a ridiculous percentage of their three-point shots, then holds on as the more talented favorite makes a run that may or may not make up for their early laziness.

If it doesn't, you have two days worth of heartwarming stories and images of the latest Cinderella, but two days is all they get.  Cinderellas can win one game in the NCAA tournament, but they rarely win two.  Most of these stories end with Cinderella absorbing a 20 point loss in their second game and everyone forgetting about them.

Needless to say, Florida Gulf Coast University is not following the formula.

This can't be stressed enough: Dunk City is far, far, FAR more athletic than the average low-seed Cinderella, and they didn't hit more than 8 three pointers in either of their first two tournament games.  Neither of their first two opponents took them lightly.  FGCU was basically tied with both Georgetown and San Diego State at the half.  The typical underdog script does NOT include blitzing the higher seed team after halftime with the type of free-wheeling athleticism seen above.

Because I'm a nerd, I think about the difference between the typical Cinderella and FGCU as a difference between types of outliers.  The script I described above is probably the easiest way for an outlier to manifest itself, and outliers are bound to manifest themselves.  Odds say that the worst Division III team in America could beat Louisville or Indiana if they played enough times, even if those odds are probably, literally, at least one million to one.  The odds of a real, live Division 1 program that won its conference getting hot enough from the 3pt line for a day and catching a good team napping are considerably higher.  However, no one pretends that the normal Cinderella is actually better than the teams they beat.  They get hot for one night, and they get a great win, but there's no doubt who would win if they played a best of seven series.  What makes FGCU an outlier among outliers is, I think they're actually better than the two teams they've beat.  Once FGCU stopped holding Georgetown on a pedestal, they blew them away.

Stats has come to dominate sports generally and the NCAA tournament selection process specifically, and we have really good stats that measure the quality of teams that can predict with startling accuracy how 99 percent of the games between two teams will go.  I'm starting to think that FGCU is the 1 percent of teams that advanced stats really can't capture.  This team isn't winning flukey, like most underdogs do.  Over the past week, they have been better than two really good teams, because they've been more athletic and more skilled.  Maybe the stats penalized them too much for playing in a crap conference.  Maybe FGCU just got a lot better over, say, the last month, and the advanced stats are not rewarding that improvement.

It's one of those craziest, most unpredictable things I've seen in sports, and anyone who tells you they know how this will end is lying.  All bets are off with this team.  If they can blowout Georgetown and San Diego State, they can absolutely beat Florida and the Michigan/Kansas winner.  Numbers tell you that they shouldn't have a chance against any of those three teams, but it's pretty clear that numbers fail to capture the magic of FGCU.

The Lebron Narrative

Had the Heat lost, today, we'd hear questions about Lebron's fitness and, consequently, his commitment to off-season conditioning.  Psychologists would be brought forth to opine as to whether a lack of the clutch gene can manifest physical symptoms.  Most of all, we'd hear a lot of morons claiming Lebron faked it because he couldn't handle the pressure.

Yet because they won, we have to hear how Lebron nobly gave everything he has, the way a true champion should and the way he never, ever would have before he went through the pain of losing before.  "Yes," the very serious men writing about a game will say somberly, "this affirms everything we know about how champions are made, not born.

Both stories are ridiculous.  #6, people.  Say it with me.

The Politics of NBA Late Game Hero Ball

Note: Official TWEDP Bee Correspondent Sarah Dougherty is late to file her report on the Denver Basebee Controversy.  We apologize for the delay but are happy to bring you more of the usual nonsense.

This post is for the homie Bernard, who requested we discuss the ridiculous role of narrative in the way people think about and cover the NBA.  Basically, Kobe Bryant is clutch and Lebron James chokes, and YOU MUST BELIEVE THIS.  You must believe this because everyone knows it's true. You must believe this even though every statistical measure we have shows that Kobe shoots a laughably low percentage and turns the ball over way too much in crunch time and OMG FIVE RINGS DUDE WHY YOU HATIN?  You must believe this even though Lebron seems to nail a clutch shot or three in just about every playoff series his team wins and all the stats show that he is one of the best clutch performers in the league.

Thing is, Bernard, I don't really have a whole lot to say that hasn't been said recently.  For one thing, after Kobe singlehandedly lost Game 2 against the Thunder Wednesday night, even ESPN stated the obvious.

Also, I've decided I'm out on Lebron-as-meme.  Those who frequent the circus know that I've been one of Lebron's staunchest defenders, but as part of letting go of my attachment to OKP, I'm letting go of my defense of Lebron and trying to see him as the player he really is.  What he is: one the greatest players we've ever seen who falters ever so slightly in clutch moments.  It's not a lot.  If Greg Norman is a 10, Lebron is a 3.  It's slight enough that it only takes him from the best player in the league down to, oh, like a top 10 player in clutch situations.  Also, he's not doomed to choke forever.  As the greatest living sportswriter point out, his choking seems to be a recent development, so we can hope he grows out of it.  

But right now?  Yes, Lebron shrinks a little bit from the moment.  Whatever.  I don't care as much anymore.  The Heat are going to lose to the Pacers.  It's not Lebron's fault, because Bosh is hurt, Wade is old, and everyone else on his team sucks, but Lebron deserves it, because he made his Decision.  He's obviously not having fun, and the Heat are a miserable basketball team to watch right now.  I can't be bothered.

Bring on Thunder/Spurs, which should be epic.

Woo! PIG SUEY

The head football coach at the University of Arkansas is embroiled in scandal and just got fired.  Yesterday, a bunch of news types had a fun time talking about a planned Save Bobby Petrino rally.  Only 200 people showed up, which demonstrates that the good people of Arkansas have far more common sense than the media thought.

Having just gone through one of the two worst college athletics scandals in recent memory, I have some sympathy for any fan base going through a scandal beyond the normal free tattoos NCAA nonsense.  As I read about the planned rally in Fayetteville and the condescending, snide reactions from the CFB commentariate yesterday, I remembered the Penn State scandal and the reactions to the student "riots" after Paterno got fired, as if the students on College Avenue represented every Penn State fan.

Arkansas isn't dealing with a scandal of the magnitude of Sandusky, but I feel for the fan base right now.  Contemporary major college football programs operate with no oversight and no credo more significant than "get money."  Lots of money and power with no accountability is a recipe for disaster, and disaster hurts the most when one sees something they love dragged through the mud.

Packing Conflicts

At the end of the month, I am moving out of my apartment.  Like a responsible adult, I have already started packing.  Remember, nothing makes me feel better than feeling like a responsible adult.

Like most everything else in my life for the last year, packing leaves me profoundly conflicted.  I am excited about what is to come but terrified that I don't know what that is yet.  I am both excited and terrified this move represents a step towards a new job and possibly career.  I am excited and relieved because moving out represents another break from my soon-to-be previous employer but sad because living in this apartment has meant so much more than said employer, has opened up so many amazing doors, and has led to the creation of so many wonderful friendships.

I've reached the point where I'm pretty comfortable with who I am.  Few things that can happen to me could still rock my sense of self, although I know that something down the line will do just that at some point.  But as for now, starting down a move and job fears, all I can think of is that I've done all of this before, so I don't get too worked up about anything.  However my situation resolves itself or doesn't, there will be good and bad aspects to it.

So I think being conflicted is probably an indicator that I can see more of the whole the picture.  Not all of it by a long shot, but enough to know...something worth knowing, I guess.

All of these conflicted emotions, and all I'm doing, at least for now, is putting a lot of stuff in storage and moving up to Bull City.  Given the 95 percent chance that I eventually move out of the Triangle, I can't wait for, and can't stand the thought of, the conflict I'll feel then.

One thing I am not conflicted about: LSU has a real shot of knocking off Kentucky.  CHAOS ALWAYS CHAOS (c) Takao Yamada.

11 Things For Which I'm Grateful

1) The grammatical constructions "for which," "to which," and so on.  They make me feel smart.

2) Pitchers and catchers in eight days.

3) Lavoy Allen balling out.  If they really wanna do this thing, the Sixers need toughness and physical play.  Lavoy isn't enough, but he's been a pleasant surprise.  He battles his man on defense on every position, he rebounds, he hustles, and he makes open jumpers.

4) Recently, the Alliance for Student Activites, an organization dedicated to the promotion of the value of student activities for middle school and high school students, launched its "When X=Student Activities" campaign.  This presentation and its accompanying parts are a grassroots effort that will change the public education debate in this country, and I am proud to be a part of this effort.  Please click on the link above and "like" us.

5) The opportunity to work with Bob Tryanski on #4

6) "Postcards from Hell" by The Wood Brothers

7) The staff of the PASC Grove City Gold Workshop

8) David Uzumeri says that Frank Quitely is almost done with his issue of Grant Morrison's Multiversity, which may come out this summer.

9) A semester of leave, which allowed me to submit on Sunday the best article manuscript I have ever written and researched.

10) "This too shall pass, so raise your glass to change and chance.
And freedom is the only law.
Shall we dance?"

11) New opportunities

Where Eagles Dare

Did I title this post just to get Philly peeps and Danzig fans to click on the Facebook link?

Would I do something so underhanded just to drive blog traffic?

Click on the link for MORE PANDERING

But this post is not about the NFL franchise that is most painful to support.

Nor is it about 80s punk-metal goodness.

This post is about my new favorite yoga pose.

Because I've got a fairly high center of gravity and long, spindly legs, yoga poses where I balance on one leg are relatively challenging for me.  The challenge is double for eagle pose, which I fondly remember Rodney Yee once calling "wobbly."  

You don't have to have ever done yoga to appreciate how funky Eagle Pose is.  Just look at that picture.  Legs and arms wrapped around one another and jutting out at all angles, and one is supposed to stay upright on one leg?  One is supposed to hold that for 30 seconds?  Especially when yoga teachers love to save it for the last 20 minutes of class, when my poor, spindly legs are already dying?

What I remembered during today's practice at The World's Greatest Yoga Studio is that when I adopt the attitude I just described, my Eagle Pose is doomed before I move a single muscle.  

And that Eagle Pose is a metaphor for life.

Think about it.  What makes Eagle Pose, or any pose, difficult?  Gravity?  The ground?  Your mat?  Friend, those things are constant.  Rain or shine, good practice or bad, gravity will always pull down and your mat will always be the same color and texture.  Isn't that a little bit like the world?  When I go outside, the world will still be the same as it was yesterday and as it will be tomorrow.  Jerks will still be jerks.  Traffic will still be traffic.

The real difficulties in both Eagle Pose and life are mostly a function of things we do to ourselves.  In Eagle Pose, I always want to make sure that my arms and legs are as twisted as they can be, that I'm as low to the floor as possible, and that my back is straight as can be.  In short, I try to do too much.  And, inevitably, when I'm trying to be Super Yogi, Eagle Pose kicks my ass.

Life?  Dawg, I have a job and am going to have a job well into the future.  I've got money enough to pay the rent, eat, drink, and fly somewhere whenever I please.  So why am I so worried about job security?  Why do I get myself twisted in knots trying to make sure I'm doing everything perfectly?  Why do I have to find the exact right step for my future, and why do I have to find it now?

I don't.

I can relax into the pose and into life.  

When I am not trying to be Super Yogi, Eagle Pose is bliss.  When I relax, I'm not sure that there's a pose that feels better for my hips and my shoulders.  

In life, I will do the best I can do today and trust that all is coming.  That means I work hard each and every day to maximize my chances at the best possible future, but I recognize I can't wave a magic wand and make all of my problems disappear today.  I will do the best I can today, in this moment, and that is always enough.

And if you made it this far, you've earned your punk-metal awesomeness.

The Smartest Animals, featuring Phillies talk

One of the things I have learned in the first months of TWEDP is that fewer people read stuff on the weekend.  I need to get better at accounting for that fact in my writing, because the two posts I wrote this weekend are, in my opinion, among the best I've done so far.  So I'm going to cop out a bit today and ask that if you're looking to read some of that raw, uncut Shelly, check Saturday's entry about how to change the world or Sunday's entry about what Tara Stiles means for yoga.

Oh, and the Phillies signed Juan Pierre.

I'm not mad.  It's a minor league deal.  If he makes the team, he pinch runs, pinch hits when all other options are gone, and starts maybe 30 games.

Most importantly, the Phillies needed to address the scrapiness deficit facing their team and Major League Baseball.  For the Phillies, you can't just let the veteran know-how of Raul Ibanez leave and expect your team to remember how to play the right way.  Adding Pierre to the outfield rotation ensures that we have a guy who will teach all these fancy-pants high priced stars how to run hard and put their pants on one leg at a time.  The Phillies have also done a great service to Major League Baseball and BBWWA, which is reeling after the loss of its sweet, sweet prince.

Whatever.  You don't care about that, and neither does Takao.  You're just waiting for me to link to the greatest Fire Joe Morgan post in history.

Wish granted.

Dolphins on the Delaware, y'all!!

Cundiff's Folly: On a Blame-Free Society

Life is complex.  In 99.9 percent of cases, no one event or phenomenon is responsible for the totality of the outcome.

Congratulations, Bill Barnwell.  You have a layman's understanding of chaos theory.  You are level-headed unbiased high priest of sports statistical orthodoxy.  You understand that it would be, like, so last century to blame one person for the outcome of a football game, and all of the other high priests would laugh at you.

Also, you're full of sh!t.

There are many reasons the Ravens and Niners aren't going to the Super Bowl, but most of them involve men trying to narrow down countless options into the one right decision (hi, Cam Cameron) or perform incredibly difficult tasks.

On the latter point, shout out to Alex Smith, who might have been throwing to the worst collection of wide receivers I've ever seen this season and still rescued his career.

Each game had a singular exception to the "trained professionals struggling with extremely difficult tasks in the most tense possible environment."  They were asked to perform the most simple tasks associated with their jobs that required a level of skill that every college player in the country possesses, and they failed miserably.

Billy Cundiff and Kyle Williams lost the game for their teams yesterday.  It doesn't make us less objective or rational to say so.  They failed at basic fundamental tasks.  NFL kickers need to make 32 yard field goals one thousand out of one thousand times.  Williams was worse, because all he had to do was stay away from a rolling punt, and the Niners win that game in overtime.  Like, don't touch it.  I could have done that.

Hell, I did do that.  If Kyle Williams had been sitting next to me yesterday, he would have performed his job adequately, and I wouldn't have to listen to two weeks worth of stories asking if Eli F@#$@#$ Manning is a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

However, "Cundiff's Folly" has a better ring to it, so I'm going with that.  Anytime someone makes an issue more complicated than it needs to be, and snottily asserts that the world is complicated and if you were smarter you'd understand, look at them with supreme condescension and explain to them, in the voice that you'd use with a kindergardner who can't figure out how to tie his shoes, that they're committing Cundiff's Folly.

Also, I really hate Eli Manning.